Technology adoption vs years before 2031 (log-log)

Both axes log. The fitted curve becomes a straight line; x is anchored on its end year, so it can forecast.

source: Same estimates and fit as adoption-one-curve.pages.dev (Our World in Data/ITU, World Bank, WHO/UNICEF, GSMA, archaeology refs); AI point = ChatGPT weekly users (OpenAI posts) extended on the fastest trend • transform: Same fit as the one-curve chart, redrawn: years = A x (x0 - year)^k with x0 = 2031. On log-log axes that formula is a straight line by construction; the straightness is the form of the fit, not a finding. Dots = 21 estimates (teal: share of all people; green: share of each year's newborns vaccinated). Bars = range of intro year and of years to majority. Purple diamond = projection, NOT data (it is in the fit). Orange dots: where the line crosses 1 year / 1 month / 1 day / 1 hour, labelled with the launch date that would get there. Scroll to zoom. • drawn 2026-10-21 03:09 UTC